Action Society today challenges the credibility and completeness of the latest quarterly crime statistics, warning that without transparent conviction rates and reliable data on violence against women and children, the figures presented to the public fail to reflect the true state of South Africa’s justice system.
While the Minister of Police, Mr Firoz Cachalia, together with Deputy Ministers Mr Cassel Mathale and Dr Polly Boshielo, and National Commissioner General Fannie Masemola, presented crime statistics for the period October 2025 to December 2025, Action Society maintains that the real test of a functioning criminal justice system is not how many cases are opened, but how many criminals are convicted.
Action Society’s position is unequivocal. Arrests without convictions do not deter violent crime. Case numbers without final court outcomes do not make communities safer. The only reliable deterrent to serious violent crime is the predictable and consistent conviction of perpetrators.
South Africa is facing a systemic breakdown across the entire criminal justice chain. A police service plagued by corruption and operational failures produces investigations that are often weak or incomplete. These weaknesses are compounded by significant forensic backlogs, particularly in DNA analysis, which delay prosecutions and weaken cases. Courts are overburdened and plagued by repeated postponements and administrative inefficiencies. The cumulative effect is a justice system that too often fails to secure convictions in serious violent offences.
When cases collapse, when dockets go missing, when forensic reports are delayed and when matters are postponed repeatedly, the perceived risk of committing violent crime decreases. In such an environment, deterrence erodes and public confidence declines.
Action Society spokesperson Juanita du Preez says government continues to present statistics that measure incidents, but not justice.
“We are told how many murders were reported and how many rape cases were opened. But we are not told how many of those cases resulted in convictions. Without conviction statistics, the public is denied the full picture. Crime statistics without outcomes create the illusion of accountability, while the real crisis remains hidden,” says Du Preez.
She emphasises that certainty of punishment, not press briefings, deters crime.
“Criminals are deterred by consequences. The certainty that if they commit a violent crime, they will be properly investigated, prosecuted efficiently and convicted within a reasonable timeframe is what restores order. Until government can demonstrate consistent conviction rates for serious offences, violent crime will continue to flourish.”
For the period October 2025 to December 2025, murders totalled 6 351, putting the daily average at 71 lives lost. Attempted murder cases remained extremely high at 7 858, equal to 87 per day. Assault GBH reached 50 253 cases over the quarter, meaning 558 people were violently attacked each day. Rape figures remained deeply troubling, with 11 430 rapes reported, translating to 127 women raped per day.
Action Society is deeply alarmed by the continued absence of disaggregated statistics on crimes against women and children. SAPS has indicated that significant anomalies were identified in the datasets used to report on murder, attempted murder and assault with intent to cause grievous bodily harm against women and children, including discrepancies between quarterly and annual totals, duplication of crime counts and inconsistencies in the recording of demographic variables. As a result, the data was withdrawn to uphold data integrity.
While accuracy is essential, the reality is that South Africa remains in the grip of a declared national crisis of gender-based violence and femicide. No national disaster has received less sustained urgency or statistical clarity than the violence inflicted daily on women and children. In the midst of an acknowledged GBV crisis, the country does not even have reliable, validated and publicly available statistics reflecting the scale of these crimes. The inability to produce accurate disaggregated data undermines accountability, weakens policy responses and signals a disturbing lack of prioritisation of women and children’s safety.
Through its national court oversight programme, Action Society has repeatedly observed cases affected by incomplete investigations, missing documentation, outstanding forensic reports and endless postponements. In too many instances, matters are withdrawn due to insufficient evidence. Each collapse represents not only a procedural failure, but a betrayal of victims and their families.
“South Africans do not only want to know how many crimes were committed. They want to know how many criminals are behind bars,” says Du Preez. “They also want to know, with certainty, how many women and children are being murdered, assaulted and raped, and whether the state is capable of protecting them.”
Action Society calls on the Ministry of Police and the Department of Justice to publish quarterly conviction rates for murder, rape, attempted murder, robbery with aggravating circumstances and crimes against children. The organisation further demands that reliable, disaggregated statistics on violence against women and children be urgently corrected, validated and reinstated.
Without transparent reporting on outcomes and on the true scale of gender-based violence, crime statistics will remain a record of incidents rather than a measure of justice.
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